Saturday, July 23, 2022

Opinion Today: How to make a decision when there’s no “right” one

Some choices we face in life do more than just determine pleasure or pain.

Spend less time trying to figure out the best path to get to where we want to go and spend more time thinking about where we want to go in the first place.

Allie Sullberg

By Russ Roberts

Until recently, the decision to marry or to have children was no decision at all. We were all pushed toward marriage and parenthood, in that order. Today, it's a choice. How might we think about making that choice rationally? It's not unreasonable, as I hear from many people struggling with these decisions, to look for ways to use evidence and data.

As I wrote in my Times Opinion essay this week, I call these challenges "wild problems": big life decisions where evidence and data are not only of little help but can ultimately lead us astray. I was trained as an economist at the University of Chicago to believe that people were rational, and that rationality meant trying to get the most out of life. Making a choice meant choosing the path that resulted in the most satisfaction.

But there are a handful of choices we face in life — like the choice to get married — that do more than determine our pleasure and pain along the way. These choices define us. They establish who we are and what we care about. Given that reality, it's no longer clear what rationality even means in the conventional way economists and decision theorists think of.

Late in life I discovered that great thinkers and scientists — whom you'd think are the most rational among us — are no better than the rest of us at facing wild problems. They fret and struggle just like we all do. Inevitably, these choices require something akin to a leap in the dark. In my book "Wild Problems," I explore different ways to confront this reality; in my guest essay, I look at one great scientist who did his best to make a rational choice but ultimately gave up and took a leap. So if you're struggling with a wild problem, maybe it's a comfort to know you've got very good company.

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