Monday, July 25, 2022

Opinion Today: What’s the future of Covid in America?

Experts set the record straight on variants, reinfections and endemicity.
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By Alexandra Sifferlin

Senior Staff Editor, Opinion

In order to understand the coronavirus pandemic right now, it's necessary to synthesize a set of facts that may seem contradictory.

We are in a period of widespread infections, thanks to the Omicron subvariants. At the same time, hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 are substantially lower than they were during past surges. One I.C.U. doctor recently shared with me that she hasn't seen a coronavirus patient in months.

Two pieces we published in Times Opinion this week take stock of the coronavirus as both a seemingly permanent feature of our lives, with the subsequent sickness and death, and as something that our immune systems, through both vaccination and past exposure, are, for the most part, still fighting well.

"How can you characterize this dynamic, or make sense of it?" my colleague David Wallace-Wells wrote in his newsletter. His analysis is an important primer for understanding what's happening now, and what's likely to come. One expert told David he estimates that, going forward, around 50 percent of Americans will be infected with the coronavirus every year and more than 100,000 will die from it. "How can you reckon with that level of dying?" David asks.

We also published a guest essay from the virologist Jeremy Kamil, who aims to set the record straight about variants and reinfections. "As a virologist, it's important to me that people understand Covid-19 remains a great concern," Kamil writes. "But this does not excuse or license a misdiagnosis of the current situation."

As Kamil outlines, there's good reason to continue taking Covid seriously, but recent hand-wringing about the accumulative effect of reinfections or whether vaccine effectiveness is disappearing is misplaced.

"Alas, this current situation, where some are newly susceptible to infection while others remain protected, is no friend to nuance," he writes, but it's important to keep in mind that "there has yet to be a variant that negates the benefits of vaccines."

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