Thursday, February 16, 2023

Opinion Today: Could Nikki Haley be the next president?

These experts rate her chances on a scale of 1 to 10.
Author Headshot

By Laura Reston

Senior Staff Editor, Opinion

Stuart Stevens, a veteran campaign strategist, used to think Nikki Haley could save the Republican Party from itself. He saw in her the kind of magic few politicians possess, a genuine warmth and magnetism that isn't feigned and can't be taught. But as he describes in a guest essay we published this week, she took everything she had that made her a standout candidate — from her story as a daughter of immigrants to her legacy as a governor who removed the Confederate flag from the grounds of South Carolina's state capitol — and threw it all away.

To Stevens, Haley's abrupt descent into Republican monoculture highlights something he'd long known: Donald Trump "didn't change the Republican Party," he writes, "he revealed it. Ms. Haley, for all her talents, embodies the moral failure of the party in its drive to win at any cost, a drive so ruthless and insistent that it has transformed the G.O.P. into an autocratic movement."

That theme emerged again when we asked campaign strategists, political reporters, conservative thinkers and several of our own columnists — a brain trust we'll be turning to here in Opinion to help guide us through what's sure to be a chaotic primary season — to assess Haley as a candidate and to break down what, if anything, she can offer a Republican Party still in Trump's thrall. What kind of country does she want to build? Is it a vision to fear or crave? And does she have what it takes to point a way forward, beyond the skirmishes of the day?

Haley didn't inspire a great deal of confidence among the people we spoke to. Ross Douthat called her a "candidate of Reaganite bromides." Dan McCarthy described her vision as a "prepackaged failure." But there were lively debates, too, over whether Haley could, in fact, reach the White House, with Bret Stephens and others arguing that she could make it all the way — if she can get through a primary first.

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What emerged from these conversations is a portrait of a party in transition, trying to figure out exactly what it believes and whom to turn to, a party torn between what voters want and what Republicans need in order to win. When the next Republican enters the race, we'll convene the same group and ask for their unvarnished opinions. The hope is that these candidate scorecards, as we're calling them, will help you, our readers, understand the debates that animate and divide the modern Republican Party as President Biden prepares to fight for a second term and Donald Trump plots his return to Washington from his Palm Beach winter palace.

What Our Readers Are Saying

"She's somewhat bland (like Biden perhaps), yet she has been able to avoid the negatives that plague Trump, DeSantis and Pence. If I were a Republican, I would consider voting for her. That fact alone is an indication Republicans will choose someone else." — Steve, Belmont, N.C.

"A lot of the mainstream conservatives might want her but are fearful that she won't gain traction with the Republican base. But she might make a great vice-presidential candidate." — Kevin, Queens

"I think she'd give Biden a run for his money if she got the nomination, and might even win. However, to get the nomination, she would need DeSantis to not run and Trump to get a prison sentence that keeps him out of the race." — Cindy, Seattle

Head to the comments section to read more responses and share your own. You can see the full scorecard here.

Here's what we're focusing on today:

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