There is a fairly well-founded truism that American voters don't cast their ballots based on foreign policy. When it comes to elections, the domestic sphere reigns supreme. Remember: It's the economy, stupid! But my "Matter of Opinion" co-hosts and I wanted to pressure-test that old chestnut in light of recent events. Republicans — lawmakers and voters — have questioned the Biden administration's staunch support of Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression, arguing that we should focus on our own problems, especially at the southern border. And of course the ongoing crisis in Israel and Gaza, which has split the Democratic coalition, poses major threats to President Biden's re-election prospects, with progressives furious at his largely uncritical support for Israel. Foreign policy, when it has been an issue, has historically favored the incumbent, but that might not be true in this election. For one, both candidates (assuming, as appears to be inevitable, that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee) are running as incumbents. But in a globalized and interconnected world, it can be hard to draw a neat line between foreign and domestic issues. My co-hosts and I dive into these questions and more in this week's episode of "Matter of Opinion," the first in what we hope will be an ongoing series of dives into the big issues at stake in the 2024 election (and we're taking listeners' suggestions, too). Read an excerpt from our conversation below, and listen to the full episode here. Lydia Polgreen: Does foreign policy as an issue favor Trump or Biden in this election? Michelle Cottle: I'm going with Trump. People are feeling surly about life and the world in general, and that tends to come back and bite the president on the butt. Carlos Lozada: I would agree. I think the whole "foreign policy favors the incumbent" does not work this time around, when people see a chaotic world under Biden and a "strong leader" under Donald Trump. Ross Douthat: I feel like I should be contrarian, but I agree. Certainly, I think if the election were held right now, the foreign policy landscape and the situation in the world would be one of Trump's biggest assets. I think you could imagine events happening that create a rally around the flag effect for Biden. But right now, what's been bad for the world is good for Trump's campaign. Lydia: And Trump has the great benefit of having essentially no track record to look back on here, right? Carlos: He was the president. Ross: His track record is his selling point. Lydia: Yeah, but that was not necessarily his doing. Ross: You do not have to give Trump credit for anything that happened in his presidency to see that the world under Trump pre-Covid, and even during Covid, was not a time of major warfare, was more stable and in better shape than the world is right now.
Lydia: I'm going to cheat on this question and say it depends on what happens between now and November. Michelle: Well, of course! Listen to the episode:
Here's what we're focusing on today:
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Friday, January 26, 2024
Opinion Today: Will the state of the world help Trump or Biden?
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