If you've read the headlines coming out of the Middle East in the last four months, you've probably encountered the phrase "Iranian-backed militias." Iranian-backed Houthis, Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Iranian-backed groups in Iraq are at the heart of the escalation of conflict in the region. It's easy to imagine Iran, particularly its theocratic regime, as a monolith. With the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dictating an extremist agenda at home and abroad, Iran's position as an antagonist to the United States and its allies can seem fixed. But there are cracks in the regime, says Arash Azizi, the author of a guest essay on Iran's future we published this week. Khamenei is overseeing an Iran that has been battered by sanctions, divided by the protests against mandatory veiling laws, and isolated internationally because of its support for those militia groups. When the octogenarian Khamenei dies, argues Azizi, the politicians vying to take his place will dismantle some — or even all — of the Islamic Republic's cornerstone policies. On the heels of a recent election, the first since the 2022-23 mass protests and the war in Gaza, Azizi provides in-depth insight into Iran's next cadre of leaders. Many of them come from a military background, turning to politics after serving in the influential Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Despite their hard-line rhetoric, Azizi sees these politicians as technocrats first and foremost, interested more in opening Iran to trade, reviving the economy and improving infrastructure than they are in the ideals of the Islamic Revolution. If Azizi is right, it could signal a different Iran on our horizon, one that more resembles Pakistan and Algeria with their pragmatic military authoritarianism than the theocratic rule of Khamenei. It could even, Azizi writes, lead to the easing of certain more repressive laws and to a degree of freedom of speech. Either way, the crisis in the Middle East warrants a closer look at the inner workings of Iran's leadership, and its future.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Opinion Today: What’s next for Iran?
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