Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Opinion Today: Will the Trump verdict sway voters? We asked a few.

How 11 undecided voters are processing the conviction.
Opinion Today

June 4, 2024

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By Adrian J. Rivera

Editorial Assistant, Opinion

With sentencing set for July 11, Donald Trump now faces the prospect of legal consequences far greater than any he has confronted before. But the question remains: Will Trump face any political consequences for his actions?

We tried to look for an answer by holding a focus group with 11 undecided voters, the latest in our series of more than 50 such groups. Our participants had voted for Democratic and Republican presidential candidates in the last eight years, and most would describe themselves as politically moderate. Across a series of impromptu polls during the focus group, more than half of our participants said the trial was representative of the best of democracy, but none said it increased their trust in the legal system. Five said it would affect how they voted. Most thought Trump would still win, but if forced to vote today, more would vote for President Biden than for Trump, (in some cases begrudgingly). For a few, the verdict was the last straw.

"I am somebody who is desperate to try to honor the system. He's now a convicted felon. I cannot have the president be a convicted felon. Full stop. Therefore, he is disqualified for me," said Hilary, a 55-year-old social worker from California. Jonathan, a 37-year-old operations manager from Florida who called the trial and verdict "insignificant" in his decision making, had trouble with this kind of reasoning. "To say, OK, today is the nail in the coffin because he's now classified as a convicted felon is superficial because he lost the E. Jean Carroll case and he was accused and found liable of much more heinous crimes than filing a wrong financial document. That wasn't enough?"

Tense but civil exchanges like this one occurred throughout the 90-minute conversation. This part of the discussion got at the heart of a question raised in our group: If this was the last straw, why? Time will tell whether the verdict influences the election enough to alter it; but if so, even that won't tell us why the outcome of May 30, 2024, made a difference to voters when other things did not.

Read the conversation:

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