Since October of last year, the threat of the war in Gaza spreading into a wider conflict has hung heavily over the Middle East. What exactly a full-scale conventional war would look like — and who would likely be dragged into it — has been the subject of plenty of speculation. After all, on-and-off fighting has occurred on multiple fronts across the region over the last ten months, and tens of thousands of people have already died. There are profound concerns in Washington that things could get worse, a feeling that has deepened since April when Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time. Now, after Tehran vowed to avenge the assassination last month of a top Hamas leader in Iran, which it blames on Israel, we feel even closer to the edge. Biden administration officials have fanned out across the Middle East in an urgent bid to convince Iran to stand down, using a combination of intensive diplomacy and a beefed-up U.S. military presence in the region. It's a playbook that President Biden has tried with success before, as Dana Stroul writes in a guest essay today. And it could work again. But, Stroul argues, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with the continuing difficulty of securing a cease-fire deal that could ease tensions, means there is no guarantee of continued success. "Mr. Biden's efforts didn't stop Iran from attacking Israel in the spring," she writes. "It is difficult to see how the same moves will be sufficient now." Stroul does not believe a wider war is inevitable. The United States and its partners still have the chance, she writes, to make it very clear to Tehran that there will be costs — military, economic and diplomatic — if it follows through on its stated plan. The world can still avoid an even deadlier war, she says, and must do everything it can to try. Here's what we're focusing on today:
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Thursday, August 15, 2024
Opinion Today: Is it possible to stop a wider war in the Middle East?
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