And how richer nations need to help others prepare.
By Chris Conway Senior Staff Editor, Opinion |
Only a few things in life are guaranteed. One of them is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, known as ENSO. It's a climate phenomenon that originates in the equatorial Pacific but has global weather ramifications for temperature and precipitation. |
Scientists "can often predict its arrival many seasons in advance," according to the federal government's ENSO Blog, which is important, because the oscillation can result in potentially disastrous floods or drought depending on which phase it is in — El Niño, La Niña, or neutral. El Niño and La Niña events tend to recur every two to seven years, though not at the same time. |
That general predictability is the focus of a guest essay by three economists who focus on sustainable development, Amir Jina, Jesse Anttila-Hughes and Gordon McCord. They make the case that "these forecasts can be used to help prevent damage to food systems, power supplies and, most important, human health." |
Some countries already prepare for ENSO events, but the threats they pose are not being addressed adequately in some developing countries. Droughts or heavy rains can push many more millions of children into malnutrition, the authors found in their research. Organizations like the United Nations and rich nations must do more to help these countries, they say. |
We are now in an El Niño phase, when sea surface temperatures are warmer than usual. It will run through the spring; scientists predict the odds are that it will become a strong event. |
"We know where El Niño generally brings more rain and more drought conditions up to six months ahead of time. Now we need to use this information to prevent millions of children from experiencing extreme hunger that will physically and cognitively scar them for the rest of their lives," they write. |
Scientists are still studying what happened, but what is clear is that the hurricane formed in an area of the Pacific that was unusually warm, in part because of this year's El Niño. |
In 2015, the following events all had in common one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded, according to the government's State of the Climate report from that year: "A record-smashing hurricane season in the central North Pacific. Water rationing in Puerto Rico. The biggest one-year jump in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on record. Severe drought in Ethiopia. The hottest global surface temperature — by one of the largest margins — on record." |
We're about to see what this latest El Niño will bring. All the more reason to be prepared. |
Here's what we're focusing on today: |
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