The Iowa caucuses have long produced come-from-behind winners or unexpectedly tight results — affirming the democratic principle that elections are decided by voters and not by polls or anything else, and that races need not necessarily shake out in favor of a candidate who might look unstoppable. But this year, the caucuses could unofficially cement Donald Trump as the 2024 Republican nominee. They can seem a bit pro forma when the former president carries a double-digit lead in Iowa and across the country. Our first focus group of the year brought together eight voters in Iowa who plan to participate in the Republican presidential caucuses on Monday. Our discussion with them went in a direction I wasn't expecting. "Against the Constitution of the United States," "uncontrolled," "love/hate" were some of the words and phrases our participants used to react to the words "Donald Trump." Asked what's going well in the country, Nancy, 69, said — after a long pause — that inflation had, in fact, eased a bit. Patrick, 58, said that the cost of food and fuel had gone down. Later in the conversation, we asked whether, if the choice in November were between Trump and President Biden, anyone would consider voting for Biden. One participant said she may not vote at all, while Jamie, 52, admitted, "Honestly, if it was Trump and Biden and Biden happened to be in a coma, I would vote for Biden. And I'm not just making that up." Any one focus group is limited, of course, but the degree to which these eight men and women were lukewarm on Trump made me wonder if the Iowa result is as settled as the polls tell us it is. The vote in Iowa on Monday is important, but by no means definitive: Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee were the last three winners of their party's Iowa caucus, but none went on to be the Republican nominee for president. Few things are inevitable. Donald Trump's victory in 2024 isn't one of them, though it often feels as if it is. Read more in the focus group:
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Thursday, January 11, 2024
Opinion Today: Nothing in life is guaranteed
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