Is America headed for a war with China, perhaps over Taiwan? Some Americans are concerned. Michael Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told me that he's worried enough that he's listening to the audiobook of Barbara Tuchman's "The Guns of August," the classic account of how the West stumbled into World War I, for some insight. He said that, today, "the world war potential is really, really significant." For my latest column, I traveled to Taiwan to gauge the risk and assess how to reduce it. And while I have enormous respect for Admiral Mullen, on balance I think that Americans overstate the danger. In my latest column, I also caution that American anxiety about war can become self-fulfilling. There is a fine line between deterring China and provoking it. When Nancy Pelosi was speaker of the House, for example, she visited Taiwan in a show of support. China reacted so aggressively that 62 percent of Taiwanese said in a poll that the Pelosi visit had actually made Taiwan less secure. What Taiwan needs, I argue, is less symbolic support and more concrete assistance — quietly delivered — like anti-ship missiles and help fighting cyberattacks. The single best way to reduce the risk to Taiwan would probably be to help Ukraine in its war against Russia. The more the Russian invasion of Ukraine is perceived as a failure and a humiliation for Vladimir Putin, the less likely China's president, Xi Jinping, will try to take a whack at Taiwan. While in Taiwan I also visited Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which makes 90 percent of the world's advanced chips used in everything from cars to computers to guided missiles. If a war shut down T.S.M.C.'s factories, there could be a global depression. I wrote here about T.S.M.C., which I described as perhaps "the most important company in the world." Mark Liu, the chairman of T.S.M.C., offered advice for the United States about reducing the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait that I thought was particularly shrewd. "Do more," he advised. "Talk less." Read the column:
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Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Opinion Today: War can be a self-fulfilling prophecy
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