There are different ways of responding to shock. You can absorb the event, taking time to reflect on it. Or you can react immediately, plunging into action in the hope it rearranges the rupture. President Emmanuel Macron of France is clearly partial to the second approach. Just hours after the stunning success of Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally in Sunday's vote for the European Parliament, Macron dissolved parliament and called snap elections. Jaws fell to the floor. The vote, to be held over two rounds on June 30 and July 7, hands the French far right a seemingly golden opportunity to enter government. The move, Cole Stangler writes in a guest essay today, will "go down as one of the wildest gambles in modern French history." The risk, Stangler shows, was calculated. Already lacking a majority in the National Assembly, Macron faced a slow draining away of his authority in the wake of Sunday's vote. His coalition, never stable, could crack under the pressure of the ascendant National Rally; the path to a Le Pen presidency in 2027 was all too clear to see. To break this dynamic, Macron — as he has so often in his political career — took the risky option. Success is far from certain. The National Rally, bolstered by its new rising star, Jordan Bardella, has never been stronger — and the republican front, the tradition by which voters and parties unite to defeat the far right, never weaker. Polls suggest that the National Rally is in the lead and likely to form some part of the next government. But Macron may have anticipated this, too. His gambit, Stangler argues, "can also be seen as an effort to derail the National Rally's march to the Élysée Palace by, counterintuitively, forcing the party to govern." It's an almighty wager, to put it lightly. The situation is moving fast: There is talk of pacts on the left and right, and victory for the far right is no given. But there could well be more shocks ahead. Here's what we're focusing on today:
We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times. Games Here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle and Spelling Bee. If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here. Forward this newsletter to friends to share ideas and perspectives that will help inform their lives. They can sign up here. Do you have feedback? Email us at opiniontoday@nytimes.com. If you have questions about your Times account, delivery problems or other issues, visit our Help Page or contact The Times.
|
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Opinion Today: Emmanuel Macron’s wild gamble
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment